Polls Who will win the 2013 NRL
- Thread starter Northern_Union
- Start date
Its a funny thing. Everyone wanted top 4 and bottom 4.
Yet - Teams 1 and 2 now have a harder game IMO.
Would you rather play Manly or Melbourne - or Cowboys / Knights ?
2 of the bottom 4 must go - but the other two come off a win - against a team that has just played a top side. Dogs would love this.
Yet - Teams 1 and 2 now have a harder game IMO.
Would you rather play Manly or Melbourne - or Cowboys / Knights ?
2 of the bottom 4 must go - but the other two come off a win - against a team that has just played a top side. Dogs would love this.
Beauty - I'll put the lot on the Cows ...
Done: The odds for margins 1-12 and 13+ are published on team list Tuesday. Some lists are early, but other teams don't publish until 6pm-8pm, so posting the lot is usually a late night Tuesday job. I aim to have them available before Wednesday morning visitors arrive at this site to start adding their thoughts.
The odds are pretty close this week-- a dollar or less separating the teams. This is usually a sign not to place a bet.
Good luck everyone.
Can't believe Gallen, Mullen and Ennis are in this picture.
Is it possible to have an ongoing one - ie we pick the GF winner - now. Then either stand or fall as the finals go on. Odds would increase as it goes on - and would reflect the positions - eg 1st maybe 2/1 - 8th maybe 40/1.
If 8th made the GF it could be on 250/1 ?
If 8th made the GF it could be on 250/1 ?
Yes and no.
The closest agency quotes I could find for that type of wager are called “Stage Of Elimination” odds. Today, they stand at:
Sydney Roosters
Win Premiership 4.00
Lose Grand Final 3.85
Preliminary Final - Week 3 2.35
Semi Final - Week 2 5.50
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Win Premiership 3.50
Lose Grand Final 3.50
Preliminary Final - Week 3 2.75
Semi Final - Week 2 5.50
Melbourne Storm
Win Premiership 4.00
Lose Grand Final 3.80
Preliminary Final - Week 3 2.50
Semi Final - Week 2 5.00
Canterbury Bulldogs
Win Premiership 21.00
Lose Grand Final 17.00
Preliminary Final - Week 3 7.00
Semi Final - Week 2 2.10
Elimination Final - Week 1 2.52
Cronulla Sharks
Win Premiership 29.00
Lose Grand Final 26.00
Preliminary Final - Week 3 5.50
Semi Final - Week 2 2.45
Elimination Final - Week 1 2.18
North Queensland Cowboys
Win Premiership 29.00
Lose Grand Final 26.00
Preliminary Final - Week 3 8.00
Semi Final - Week 2 2.90
Elimination Final - Week 1 1.72
Newcastle Knights
Win Premiership 51.00
Lose Grand Final 41.00
Preliminary Final - Week 3 17.00
Semi Final - Week 2 2.65
Elimination Final - Week 1 1.55
The events are settled as each team is eliminated.
But once you place your wager on a given outcome for an event, the Sports Book does not permit the odds for that wager to be changed. This is a security feature.
If agency quoted odds should change, then the Sports Book can issue new odds which will apply to new incoming wagers, not wagers already placed which continue at the previous odds.
Hopefully that explanation makes sense. I'll try setting these up now and we'll see how much interested is generated.
The “Finals Placings” events have been posted.
Disclaimers and Notes:
(1) The “Finals Placings” events are all indicated as closing just before kick-off in the GF Oct 6, 2013 at 7:15 PM, but acceptance of new wagers on a team's “Finals Placings” will be suspended whenever those teams are playing a game.
(2) If the team is not eliminated (i.e. progresses through to the following week), the suspension on wagering “Finals Placings” will be lifted immediately. Updated odds may be offered for new wagers, while existing wagers continue at the previous odds.
(3) When a team is eliminated, that team's “Finals Placings” event will be settled immediately.
You're a good man TerryG, didn't realise you set up the bookie. You've done a great job and I've enjoyed it, especially since I'm not allowed to punt real coin anymore.
Thought you may have jumped off the eagles bandwagon after Sundays result.
Thought you may have jumped off the eagles bandwagon after Sundays result.
Cheers mate. That means a lot.
You've done well, especially backing Manly at 13+
I haven't fallen off the Silver-tails bandwagon. But, last week I read that Toovs was going to rest some senior players and début 2 rookies so decided not to bet on the Penrith game.
Bookie events on the 2013 World Rugby League and NRL Nines games will follow for those who wish to keep punting.
A tipping (non betting) tab will be added before next season, especially for those who don't even punt pretend coin or where agency odds aren't applicable/available such as the Queensland 2nd Division.
There could be a possibly that the new tipping tab may become the new home for Live Game Discussion threads when that content is migrated to this site from TNZWOL. But that will be subject available features, design considerations, wider discussion and consensus.
I still have issues with 50% of the teams making the Finals - but that's another matter.
I can see a few of the top 4 being kicked out in Week 2 - the Week 1 games are pretty tough going.
Agree nodd - the odds/betting has been excellent - I lose money - but don't feel too bad about it - well done TG.
I can see a few of the top 4 being kicked out in Week 2 - the Week 1 games are pretty tough going.
Agree nodd - the odds/betting has been excellent - I lose money - but don't feel too bad about it - well done TG.
Thanks SJ.
Wish I could take losing a bet so calmly. For myself, it's not losing $$$ that hurts as much as the implicit indictment on my understanding of the teams involved.
Before placing a bet, I've carefully attempted to measure both team's potential performance and their consistency in delivering that performance. So when I lose a bet, it's because I'm ignorant, and have to try harder.
Earlier this year, a homeless Wellingtonian won about $70,000 by betting an eight leg NRL multi. This chap doesn't bet unless he's reasonably certain and he puts in a lot of effort following the comp to understand team form.
I want the skills that come with consistently picking winners. and I see betting as a reality check on measuring those skills.
My 2 cents.
